Explainers, scenarios and reference
Background reading for the daily status call — what the interim US-Iran memorandum covers, how a disruption at the strait moves crude and diesel, and what the waterway actually is. Written for people who need the mechanics, not the commentary.
What the US-Iran MOU actually says about Strait of Hormuz passage
The memorandum signed in Muscat on Jun 24, 2026 opened a 60-day fee-free passage window but left routing designation with Iran — a distinction that explains the Jul 5 diversions. A clause-by-clause read of what is covered, what is not, and what happens at day 60.
CHOKEPOINT FLOW
MARKETS AND PRICES
How tonnage at the chokepoint becomes a crude print, then a number on a forecourt sign.What happens to oil prices if the strait closes again
Four illustrative paths — window renewed, window lapses, partial closure, full closure — modelled against the 20 million barrels per day that transited in 2024. Each scenario carries its own assumptions on spare capacity, pipeline bypass and war-risk premiums.
How Hormuz disruption reaches your pump price
Crude is a third to a half of what a litre costs at the pump; freight, refining margin, duty and tax are the rest. This traces the lag from a transit count at the strait to the price you pay, typically two to six weeks.
REFERENCE
Geography, lane structure, cargo mix and the incident record back to 1984.QUICK ANSWERS
Short answers as of Jul 7, 2026 06:10 UTC. The live status line on the front page is authoritative if the two disagree.Is the Strait of Hormuz open today?
Partially. Ships are transiting under an interim US-Iran agreement, and passage is currently fee-free. Iran asserts control over routing, and mines remain a reported hazard in the approach corridors, so the status level is RESTRICTED rather than open.
What does the interim MOU cover, and when does it end?
The memorandum signed in Muscat on Jun 24, 2026 opened a 60-day fee-free passage window; Jul 7 is day 14. It does not transfer routing authority — Iran continues to designate which lanes vessels use. Absent a renewal, the window lapses in late August.
Are the mines cleared?
No. Mines have been reported in the approach corridors since March 2026, in the weeks after the war began, and Iran rejected a France and Oman clearing initiative in mid-June. Both designated lanes remain in use, but operators continue to treat the approaches as a hazard area.
Can ships use the alternative lane off Oman?
In practice, not reliably. The IMO circulated a proposal for an alternative lane off the Omani coast in June 2026 and Iran called it void. On Jul 5, Iranian forces diverted six merchant ships from the Omani corridor back into Iran-designated lanes; no damage was reported and transit times rose by about four hours.
How much oil normally moves through the strait?
About 20 million barrels per day transited in 2024, roughly 20 percent of worldwide petroleum liquids consumption, on EIA figures. Roughly a fifth of global LNG trade also passes through, most of it Qatari. Daily transits fell about 70 percent after the war began in Feb 2026.
Has the strait ever been fully closed?
Not in the modern record. It stayed open through the 1984 to 1988 Tanker War, the 2011 to 2012 closure threats, and the Jun 2025 Israel-Iran war, when Iran's parliament voted to recommend closure without the measure being enacted. Traffic has been disrupted, escorted and rerouted many times, but never stopped outright.