The numbers behind the status
Every figure on this page carries a named source and is refreshed on the same 06:00 UTC cycle as the status banner on the front page. Where sources disagree we publish the range rather than pick a winner, and we say which reading the status level rests on.
HEADLINE INDICATORS
TRACKED SERIES
Monthly · 2026 · markers key to the status changelogDaily vessel transits
Movements through both designated lanes, shown as the monthly mean of the daily count.
- 1FEBWar begins · Iran asserts lane control
- 2MARMines reported in approach corridors
- 3JUNMuscat MOU · 60-day fee-free window
- 4JULSix ships diverted back into Iranian lanes
Energy flows through the strait
Petroleum liquids — crude, condensate and refined products — in million barrels per day against loaded LNG cargoes per month, plotted on a shared axis.
- 1FEBWar begins · loadings suspended
- 2JUNOman lane proposal rejected; MOU signed JUN 24
- 3JULFee-free window, day 14 of 60
War-risk insurance premium
Indicative cover for a single Hormuz call, quoted as a share of insured hull value.
- 1FEBWar begins · cover withdrawn, then repriced
- 2MARPeak quote of 2.40% of hull value
- 3JUNMOU signed · underwriters reprice downward
Brent crude, monthly average
Front-month Brent, averaged across daily settlements, in US dollars per barrel.
- 1FEBWar begins · price gaps higher
- 2MARMonthly average peaks at $128
- 3JUNMuscat MOU · risk premium narrows
- 4JULLarak grounding · no lasting price reaction
TRAFFIC BY VESSEL CLASS
Share of observed transits over the trailing 14 days, JUN 23 – JUL 6, 2026. The comparison is against the 2024 monthly mean for the same class.| Class | Share of transits | vs. baseline | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| VLCC / crude tanker | 38% | −74% | Moves in escorted blocks; every laden departure is cleared individually by Iranian routing control. |
| Product tanker | 21% | −69% | A share of Saudi barrels now leaves via the East–West pipeline to the Red Sea; the balance still transits. |
| LNG carrier | 12% | −58% | Qatari cargoes run to a scheduled slot window per convoy, which caps throughput regardless of demand. |
| Container / general cargo | 19% | −63% | Fujairah and Bandar Abbas feeder runs have resumed; one box ship grounded near Larak Island on JUL 1. |
| Bulk carrier / other | 10% | −66% | Lowest priority in the convoy queue; mean wait at the Gulf of Oman staging area is 31 hours. |
HOW WE VERIFY
Corrections policy: errors are fixed in place, the entry is marked as revised with the time of the change, and anything that would have altered the status level at the time is announced at the top of the front page for 48 hours.We do not run sensors of our own. The status level on this site is a judgement built from four independent streams — vessel positions, port records, insurance pricing and official notices — each of which can be wrong on any given day but rarely fails in the same direction at the same time. When they diverge, we hold the previous status until at least two streams agree, and we say in the update note which one moved first. Everything below is illustrative sample data for a demonstration build.
- 1Collect vessel positions
We pull terrestrial and satellite AIS from commercial aggregators covering the approaches from Bandar Abbas down to Khasab and out past Fujairah. Positions are sampled hourly and rolled up into a single daily count at 05:00 UTC.
- 2Filter for genuine transits
A vessel counts as a transit only when it crosses both the northern and southern boundary lines of the strait within 36 hours on a consistent heading. Repositioning moves, anchorage shuffles and vessels that turn back are excluded, which is why our count runs lower than raw AIS totals.
- 3Corroborate against port records
Each counted transit is matched to an arrival or departure in published port lists at either end of the passage. Fujairah reports same-day; Iranian port lists reach us with a two- to four-day lag, so recent days carry a wider error band.
- 4Cross-check hazards and notices
Navigational warnings, IMO circulars and Iranian lane designations are read against commercial satellite imagery for anything we are asked to treat as fact — a grounding, a salvage, a closed corridor. Mine reports are the weakest link here: we log them, attribute them, and never present them as surveyed.
- 5Set the status level
The level moves only when transit volume, routing control and hazard reporting point the same way, and one editor writes the change while a second signs it off. The reasoning behind every change is published as a dated entry on /timeline rather than folded silently into the banner.
CONFIDENCE
Our own read on how much weight each input can carry today. These figures move with conditions and are reassessed at each daily update.
Both designated lanes are well covered, though jamming near Bandar Abbas still opens short gaps.
Fujairah publishes same-day arrivals; Iranian port lists arrive two to four days late.
Tonnage is inferred from draft readings, and laden status is uncertain for roughly a third of transits.
Hazard locations rest on a handful of operator reports that no party has independently surveyed.
SOURCES & CADENCE
What feeds each number on this page, and how often it lands. Source links are placeholders in this build.| Source | What it feeds | Cadence |
|---|---|---|
| Commercial AIS aggregators (terrestrial + satellite) | Transit counts, vessel class mix, waiting times | Hourly, rolled up daily at 05:00 UTC |
| U.S. Energy Information Administration | Pre-crisis baselines for oil volumes, LNG share, chokepoint geography | Annual, with periodic revisions |
| Port arrival and departure lists — Bandar Abbas, Fujairah | Port call confirmation, berth and anchorage counts | Daily; Iranian lists lag two to four days |
| IMO circulars and NAVAREA IX navigational warnings | Lane designations, hazard and mine advisories, corridor proposals | As issued |
| Marine war-risk underwriters (indicative quotes) | Premium as a share of hull value, cover availability | Weekly, with intra-week moves on major events |
| Commercial optical and SAR satellite imagery | Grounding, salvage and anchorage verification | On demand, two to five tasks per week |
| Ship operator and charterer statements | Routing changes, convoy scheduling, reported delays | As published |